Home Health News When Is It Safe to Go Back to Normal? States Weigh Benchmarks. – The Wall Street Journal

When Is It Safe to Go Back to Normal? States Weigh Benchmarks. – The Wall Street Journal

47 min read
1
20

A closed playground in Portland, Ore.



Photo:

Moriah Ratner/Bloomberg News

The Trump administration laid out a three-phase plan for reopening the country, and states such as Georgia, Texas and Ohio have moved to loosen restrictions. But lifting lockdowns too early will bring the coronavirus roaring back, health experts say.

The country still lacks a number of measures that must be in place before it is safe to go back to some new version of normal, experts say. These include enough testing to identify new cases quickly, an army of public-health workers to find and help those who have come into contact with the new cases, and places to quarantine new cases to choke off nascent outbreaks as restrictions lift.

“We don’t want to open things up, have a huge surge in cases and have to lock everything down again,” said Crystal Watson, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security and an author of several reports on conditions for reopening. “That would be even more detrimental to our society and our economy if we have to keep yo-yoing back and forth.”

Some states are planning to reopen before they have met criteria set by the administration, such as a two-week decline in new cases or in the percentage of tests that are positive.

The administration’s plan largely leaves it to governors to decide how and when to lift stay-at-home orders in their states, as officials look to minimize economic damage as unemployment climbs. Older people and others at greater risk of serious illness should remain sheltered even after restrictions start to ease, according to the administration.

Stay-at-home orders have had a huge impact, helping to flatten the curve, data on hospitalizations and deaths show. If current physical-distancing restrictions were lifted nationwide on May 1, an immediate surge in cases would follow, according to infectious-disease modelers at Columbia University.

#g-CONTAIN_projections-box.ai2html_export
max-width: 300px;
width:100%;
margin: 0 auto;

.g-aiImg
margin-top: -1.2px;

.g-_valign
margin-top: -2px;

div[class^=”g-_textoutline-white”] text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;
div[class^=”g-_textshadow-white”] text-shadow: 1px 1px 2px #fff;
div[class^=”g-_textoutline-black”] text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #000, 1px -1px 0 #000, -1px 1px 0 #000, 1px 1px 0 #000;
div[class^=”g-_textshadow-black”] text-shadow: 1px 1px 2px #000;

div[class^=”g-_textoutline-grey”] text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #dddddd, 1px -1px 0 #dddddd, -1px 1px 0 #dddddd, 1px 1px 0 #dddddd;
div[class^=”g-_textshadow-grey”] text-shadow: 1px 1px 2px #dddddd;

#g-CONTAIN_projections-box .g-artboard
margin:0 auto;

#g-CONTAIN_projections-box p
margin:0;

.g-aiAbs
position:absolute;

.g-aiImg
display:block;
width:100% !important;

.g-aiSymbol
position: absolute;
box-sizing: border-box;

.g-aiPointText p white-space: nowrap;
#g-CONTAIN_projections-box tspan
position:relative;
overflow:hidden;

#g-CONTAIN_projections-box tspan p
font-family:Retina,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;
font-weight:300;
font-size:13px;
line-height:17px;
filter:alpha(opacity=100);
-ms-filter:progid:DXImageTransform.Microsoft.Alpha(Opacity=100);
opacity:1;
letter-spacing:0em;
text-align:left;
color:rgb(114.000000804663,114.000000804663,114.000000804663);
text-transform:none;
padding-bottom:0;
padding-top:0;
mix-blend-mode:normal;
font-style:normal;
height:auto;
position:static;

#g-CONTAIN_projections-box tspan .g-pstyle0
font-weight:500;
font-size:18px;
line-height:20px;
color:rgb(51.0000007599592,51.0000007599592,51.0000007599592);

#g-CONTAIN_projections-box tspan .g-pstyle1
font-size:15px;
line-height:20px;
color:rgb(51.0000007599592,51.0000007599592,51.0000007599592);

#g-CONTAIN_projections-box tspan .g-pstyle2
font-family:”Retina Narrow”,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;
line-height:16px;
height:16px;
text-align:right;
color:rgb(51.0000007599592,51.0000007599592,51.0000007599592);

#g-CONTAIN_projections-box tspan .g-pstyle3
font-weight:500;
font-size:15px;
line-height:20px;
color:rgb(51.0000007599592,51.0000007599592,51.0000007599592);

#g-CONTAIN_projections-box tspan .g-pstyle4
font-size:15px;
line-height:18px;
height:18px;
color:rgb(51.0000007599592,51.0000007599592,51.0000007599592);

#g-CONTAIN_projections-box tspan .g-pstyle5
font-size:15px;
line-height:18px;
height:18px;
text-align:center;
color:rgb(51.0000007599592,51.0000007599592,51.0000007599592);

#g-CONTAIN_projections-box tspan .g-pstyle6
font-family:”Retina Narrow”,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;
line-height:16px;
height:16px;
text-align:center;
color:rgb(51.0000007599592,51.0000007599592,51.0000007599592);

#g-CONTAIN_projections-_300px
position:relative;
overflow:hidden;

#g-CONTAIN_projections-_300px p
font-family:Retina,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;
font-weight:300;
font-size:15px;
line-height:18px;
height:auto;
filter:alpha(opacity=100);
-ms-filter:progid:DXImageTransform.Microsoft.Alpha(Opacity=100);
opacity:1;
letter-spacing:0em;
text-align:left;
color:rgb(51.0000007599592,51.0000007599592,51.0000007599592);
text-transform:none;
padding-bottom:0;
padding-top:0;
mix-blend-mode:normal;
font-style:normal;
position:static;

#g-CONTAIN_projections-_300px .g-pstyle0
font-weight:500;
line-height:20px;

#g-CONTAIN_projections-_300px .g-pstyle1
font-family:”Retina Narrow”,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;
font-size:13px;
line-height:16px;
height:16px;
text-align:right;

#g-CONTAIN_projections-_300px .g-pstyle2
height:18px;

#g-CONTAIN_projections-_300px .g-pstyle3
height:18px;
text-align:center;

#g-CONTAIN_projections-_300px .g-pstyle4
font-family:”Retina Narrow”,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;
font-size:13px;
line-height:16px;
height:16px;
text-align:center;

Unwelcome Return

A simulation of Covid-19 infections shows how early lifting of social-distancing measures nationally would cause a huge spike later on.

New daily infections in the U.S., range of most likely outcomes

1,000,000

If social-distancing

measures kept in place

800,000

If distancing measures

lifted on May 1

600,000

400,000

200,000

Actual

0

April

May

Notes: Projections were based on data as of April 11. Range reflects the interquartile range of model outputs. Social-distancing measures are simulated using a weekly 20% reduction in social contact for each county with more than nine weekly cases until the weekly cases in that county declines.

Sources: Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering (actual); Columbia University (projections)
Elliot Bentley/THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

Setting a Threshold

Before easing restrictions, a state’s number of new cases should fall below a threshold level, epidemiologists say. So far, the Trump administration hasn’t set such a threshold.

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, whose work has often been cited by the administration, sets a threshold of one case per day for every million people. The group calls it “a conservative estimate” based on the assumption that a state would be able to identify and trace infections to prevent widespread transmission at that level.

The institute says five states—Montana, West Virginia, Vermont, Alaska and Hawaii—could fall below that threshold and start easing restrictions starting May 4 if they have testing, contact tracing and other containment strategies in place.

Resolve to Save Lives, a health-care initiative, proposes a threshold of 40 new cases a day for every one million people. Beyond that, outbreaks would be difficult to control, said Cyrus Shahpar, a director at Vital Strategies, the nonprofit behind the initiative. Many U.S. states currently have between 80 and 100 new cases a day for every million people, he said.

Testing Falls Short

Each state has to test widely to determine how many cases it has. Despite improved capacity, though, the nation is still behind where it needs to be, in part due to shortages of supplies such as nasal swabs and the chemical mixture needed to transport samples, public-health experts say.

“Diagnostic testing for Covid-19 is the key to our slow exit from this prison that this virus has put us all in,” said Michael Pellini, managing partner of venture-capital fund Section 32 and a contributor to an action plan by the Rockefeller Foundation. “States that are simply lifting these measures without a well thought-out diagnostic plan are playing with fire.”

The daily number of tests processed nationwide has stagnated between 130,000 and 160,000 since April 6, according to the Covid Tracking Project, which collects daily testing numbers from state health departments. That number roughly doubled to just over 300,000 tests on Wednesday but dropped back down to 193,000 tests Thursday.

#g-CONTAIN_tests-box.ai2html_export
max-width: 700px;
width:100%;
margin: 0 auto;

.g-aiImg
margin-top: -1.2px;

.g-_valign
margin-top: -2px;

div[class^=”g-_textoutline-white”] text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;
div[class^=”g-_textshadow-white”] text-shadow: 1px 1px 2px #fff;
div[class^=”g-_textoutline-black”] text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #000, 1px -1px 0 #000, -1px 1px 0 #000, 1px 1px 0 #000;
div[class^=”g-_textshadow-black”] text-shadow: 1px 1px 2px #000;

div[class^=”g-_textoutline-grey”] text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #dddddd, 1px -1px 0 #dddddd, -1px 1px 0 #dddddd, 1px 1px 0 #dddddd;
div[class^=”g-_textshadow-grey”] text-shadow: 1px 1px 2px #dddddd;

@media all and (max-width: 585px)
.at4units .ai2html_export
max-width: 355px !important;

@media all and (min-width: 586px) and (max-width: 665px)
.at4units #g-CONTAIN_tests-box.ai2html_export
max-width: 540px !important;

.at8units #wsj-article-wrap .inline .ai2html_export,
.at8units #wsj-article-wrap .offset .ai2html_export,
.at8units #wsj-article-wrap .bleed .ai2html_export
margin: 0 auto;
max-width: 620px;

#g-CONTAIN_tests-box .g-artboard
margin:0 auto;

#g-CONTAIN_tests-box p
margin:0;

.g-aiAbs
position:absolute;

.g-aiImg
display:block;
width:100% !important;

.g-aiSymbol
position: absolute;
box-sizing: border-box;

.g-aiPointText p white-space: nowrap;
#g-CONTAIN_tests-box tspan
position:relative;
overflow:hidden;

#g-CONTAIN_tests-box tspan p
font-family:Retina,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;
font-weight:300;
font-size:15px;
line-height:20px;
filter:alpha(opacity=100);
-ms-filter:progid:DXImageTransform.Microsoft.Alpha(Opacity=100);
opacity:1;
letter-spacing:0em;
text-align:left;
color:rgb(51.0000007599592,51.0000007599592,51.0000007599592);
text-transform:none;
padding-bottom:0;
padding-top:0;
mix-blend-mode:normal;
font-style:normal;
height:auto;
position:static;

#g-CONTAIN_tests-box tspan .g-pstyle0
font-weight:500;
font-size:18px;

#g-CONTAIN_tests-box tspan .g-pstyle1
font-weight:500;

#g-CONTAIN_tests-box tspan .g-pstyle2
font-family:”Retina Narrow”,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;
font-size:13px;
line-height:16px;
height:16px;
text-align:right;

#g-CONTAIN_tests-box tspan .g-pstyle3
font-family:”Retina Narrow”,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;
font-size:13px;
line-height:16px;
height:16px;

#g-CONTAIN_tests-box tspan .g-pstyle4
line-height:18px;
height:18px;

#g-CONTAIN_tests-box tspan .g-pstyle5
font-family:”Retina Narrow”,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;
font-size:13px;
line-height:16px;
height:16px;
text-align:center;

#g-CONTAIN_tests-box tspan .g-pstyle6
font-size:13px;
line-height:17px;
color:rgb(114.000000804663,114.000000804663,114.000000804663);

#g-CONTAIN_tests-_300px
position:relative;
overflow:hidden;

#g-CONTAIN_tests-_300px p
font-family:Retina,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;
font-weight:500;
font-size:15px;
line-height:20px;
filter:alpha(opacity=100);
-ms-filter:progid:DXImageTransform.Microsoft.Alpha(Opacity=100);
opacity:1;
letter-spacing:0em;
text-align:left;
color:rgb(51.0000007599592,51.0000007599592,51.0000007599592);
text-transform:none;
padding-bottom:0;
padding-top:0;
mix-blend-mode:normal;
font-style:normal;
height:auto;
position:static;

#g-CONTAIN_tests-_300px .g-pstyle0
font-family:”Retina Narrow”,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;
font-weight:300;
font-size:13px;
line-height:16px;
height:16px;
text-align:right;

#g-CONTAIN_tests-_300px .g-pstyle1
font-family:”Retina Narrow”,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;
font-weight:300;
font-size:13px;
line-height:16px;
height:16px;

#g-CONTAIN_tests-_300px .g-pstyle2
font-weight:300;
line-height:18px;
height:18px;

#g-CONTAIN_tests-_300px .g-pstyle3
font-family:”Retina Narrow”,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;
font-weight:300;
font-size:13px;
line-height:16px;
height:16px;
text-align:center;

#g-CONTAIN_tests-_540px
position:relative;
overflow:hidden;

#g-CONTAIN_tests-_540px p
font-family:Retina,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;
font-weight:500;
font-size:15px;
line-height:20px;
filter:alpha(opacity=100);
-ms-filter:progid:DXImageTransform.Microsoft.Alpha(Opacity=100);
opacity:1;
letter-spacing:0em;
text-align:left;
color:rgb(51.0000007599592,51.0000007599592,51.0000007599592);
text-transform:none;
padding-bottom:0;
padding-top:0;
mix-blend-mode:normal;
font-style:normal;
height:auto;
position:static;

#g-CONTAIN_tests-_540px .g-pstyle0
font-family:”Retina Narrow”,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;
font-weight:300;
font-size:13px;
line-height:16px;
height:16px;
text-align:right;

#g-CONTAIN_tests-_540px .g-pstyle1
font-family:”Retina Narrow”,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;
font-weight:300;
font-size:13px;
line-height:16px;
height:16px;

#g-CONTAIN_tests-_540px .g-pstyle2
font-weight:300;
line-height:18px;
height:18px;

#g-CONTAIN_tests-_540px .g-pstyle3
font-family:”Retina Narrow”,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;
font-weight:300;
font-size:13px;
line-height:16px;
height:16px;
text-align:center;

#g-CONTAIN_tests-_620px
position:relative;
overflow:hidden;

#g-CONTAIN_tests-_620px p
font-family:Retina,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;
font-weight:500;
font-size:15px;
line-height:20px;
filter:alpha(opacity=100);
-ms-filter:progid:DXImageTransform.Microsoft.Alpha(Opacity=100);
opacity:1;
letter-spacing:0em;
text-align:left;
color:rgb(51.0000007599592,51.0000007599592,51.0000007599592);
text-transform:none;
padding-bottom:0;
padding-top:0;
mix-blend-mode:normal;
font-style:normal;
height:auto;
position:static;

#g-CONTAIN_tests-_620px .g-pstyle0
font-family:”Retina Narrow”,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;
font-weight:300;
font-size:13px;
line-height:16px;
height:16px;
text-align:right;

#g-CONTAIN_tests-_620px .g-pstyle1
font-family:”Retina Narrow”,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;
font-weight:300;
font-size:13px;
line-height:16px;
height:16px;

#g-CONTAIN_tests-_620px .g-pstyle2
font-weight:300;
line-height:18px;
height:18px;

#g-CONTAIN_tests-_620px .g-pstyle3
font-family:”Retina Narrow”,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;
font-weight:300;
font-size:13px;
line-height:16px;
height:16px;
text-align:center;

#g-CONTAIN_tests-_700px
position:relative;
overflow:hidden;

#g-CONTAIN_tests-_700px p
font-family:Retina,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;
font-weight:500;
font-size:15px;
line-height:20px;
filter:alpha(opacity=100);
-ms-filter:progid:DXImageTransform.Microsoft.Alpha(Opacity=100);
opacity:1;
letter-spacing:0em;
text-align:left;
color:rgb(51.0000007599592,51.0000007599592,51.0000007599592);
text-transform:none;
padding-bottom:0;
padding-top:0;
mix-blend-mode:normal;
font-style:normal;
height:auto;
position:static;

#g-CONTAIN_tests-_700px .g-pstyle0
font-family:”Retina Narrow”,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;
font-weight:300;
font-size:13px;
line-height:16px;
height:16px;
text-align:right;

#g-CONTAIN_tests-_700px .g-pstyle1
font-family:”Retina Narrow”,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;
font-weight:300;
font-size:13px;
line-height:16px;
height:16px;

#g-CONTAIN_tests-_700px .g-pstyle2
font-weight:300;
line-height:18px;
height:18px;

#g-CONTAIN_tests-_700px .g-pstyle3
font-family:”Retina Narrow”,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;
font-weight:300;
font-size:13px;
line-height:16px;
height:16px;
text-align:center;

Testing Tally

The daily number of diagnostic Covid-19 tests has plateaued over the past few weeks, with a jump on April 22. One benchmark for a sufficient testing system is a positive test rate of roughly 10%, according to the World Health Organization.

Daily tests

Percentage of daily tests that are positive*

300

 thousand

50

%

250

40

Negative

Positive

200

30

150

20

100

10

50

0

0

March

April

March 4

April 1

Daily tests

Percentage of daily tests that are positive*

300

 thousand

50

%

250

40

Negative

Positive

200

30

150

20

100

10

50

0

0

March

April

March 4

April 1

Daily tests

Percentage of daily tests that are positive*

300

 thousand

50

%

250

40

Negative

Positive

200

30

150

20

100

10

50

0

0

March

April

March 4

April 1

Daily tests

300

 thousand

250

Negative

Positive

200

150

100

50

0

March

April

Percentage of daily tests that are positive*

50

%

40

30

20

10

0

March 4

April 1

*The first five days of testing are not shown—a total of 100 tests were done, and 94 of them were positive.

Source: The COVID Tracking Project

Administration officials say shortages of testing chemicals and nasal swabs are being resolved.

Public-health authorities consider the percentage of positive test results to be a marker for whether enough tests are being given. A high percentage of positives means some infected people are likely being missed. If the portion of positive tests is small, authorities are likely casting a wide-enough net to catch most of the cases, public-health experts say.

The World Health Organization’s benchmark for adequate testing is a positive test rate of about 10%. The U.S. is hovering around 20%.

#g-CONTAIN_scatter-box.ai2html_export
max-width: 700px;
width:100%;
margin: 0 auto;

.g-aiImg
margin-top: -1.2px;

.g-_valign
margin-top: -2px;

div[class^=”g-_textoutline-white”] text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #fff, 1px -1px 0 #fff, -1px 1px 0 #fff, 1px 1px 0 #fff;
div[class^=”g-_textshadow-white”] text-shadow: 1px 1px 2px #fff;
div[class^=”g-_textoutline-black”] text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #000, 1px -1px 0 #000, -1px 1px 0 #000, 1px 1px 0 #000;
div[class^=”g-_textshadow-black”] text-shadow: 1px 1px 2px #000;

div[class^=”g-_textoutline-grey”] text-shadow: -1px -1px 0 #dddddd, 1px -1px 0 #dddddd, -1px 1px 0 #dddddd, 1px 1px 0 #dddddd;
div[class^=”g-_textshadow-grey”] text-shadow: 1px 1px 2px #dddddd;

@media all and (max-width: 585px)
.at4units .ai2html_export
max-width: 355px !important;

@media all and (min-width: 586px) and (max-width: 665px)
.at4units #g-CONTAIN_scatter-box.ai2html_export
max-width: 540px !important;

.at8units #wsj-article-wrap .inline .ai2html_export,
.at8units #wsj-article-wrap .offset .ai2html_export,
.at8units #wsj-article-wrap .bleed .ai2html_export
margin: 0 auto;
max-width: 620px;

#g-CONTAIN_scatter-box .g-artboard
margin:0 auto;

#g-CONTAIN_scatter-box p
margin:0;

.g-aiAbs
position:absolute;

.g-aiImg
display:block;
width:100% !important;

.g-aiSymbol
position: absolute;
box-sizing: border-box;

.g-aiPointText p white-space: nowrap;
#g-CONTAIN_scatter-box tspan
position:relative;
overflow:hidden;

#g-CONTAIN_scatter-box tspan p
font-family:Retina,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;
font-weight:300;
font-size:15px;
line-height:20px;
filter:alpha(opacity=100);
-ms-filter:progid:DXImageTransform.Microsoft.Alpha(Opacity=100);
opacity:1;
letter-spacing:0em;
text-align:left;
color:rgb(51.0000007599592,51.0000007599592,51.0000007599592);
text-transform:none;
padding-bottom:0;
padding-top:0;
mix-blend-mode:normal;
font-style:normal;
height:auto;
position:static;

#g-CONTAIN_scatter-box tspan .g-pstyle0
font-weight:500;
font-size:18px;

#g-CONTAIN_scatter-box tspan .g-pstyle1
font-weight:500;
height:20px;

#g-CONTAIN_scatter-box tspan .g-pstyle2
font-size:12px;
line-height:14px;
height:14px;
text-align:right;
color:rgb(50.0000008195639,50.0000008195639,50.0000008195639);

#g-CONTAIN_scatter-box tspan .g-pstyle3
font-size:13px;
line-height:15px;
height:15px;
text-align:right;

#g-CONTAIN_scatter-box tspan .g-pstyle4
font-weight:500;
font-size:13px;
line-height:15px;
height:15px;
text-align:center;

#g-CONTAIN_scatter-box tspan .g-pstyle5
font-weight:500;
height:20px;
text-align:center;

#g-CONTAIN_scatter-box tspan .g-pstyle6
font-size:13px;
line-height:15px;
height:15px;
text-align:center;

#g-CONTAIN_scatter-box tspan .g-pstyle7
font-size:13px;
line-height:15px;
height:15px;

#g-CONTAIN_scatter-box tspan .g-pstyle8
font-size:13px;
line-height:17px;
color:rgb(114.000000804663,114.000000804663,114.000000804663);

#g-CONTAIN_scatter-_300px
position:relative;
overflow:hidden;

#g-CONTAIN_scatter-_300px p
font-family:Retina,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;
font-weight:300;
font-size:15px;
line-height:20px;
filter:alpha(opacity=100);
-ms-filter:progid:DXImageTransform.Microsoft.Alpha(Opacity=100);
opacity:1;
letter-spacing:0em;
text-align:left;
color:rgb(51.0000007599592,51.0000007599592,51.0000007599592);
text-transform:none;
padding-bottom:0;
padding-top:0;
mix-blend-mode:normal;
font-style:normal;
height:auto;
position:static;

#g-CONTAIN_scatter-_300px .g-pstyle0
font-weight:500;
height:20px;

#g-CONTAIN_scatter-_300px .g-pstyle1
font-size:12px;
line-height:14px;
height:14px;
text-align:right;
color:rgb(50.0000008195639,50.0000008195639,50.0000008195639);

#g-CONTAIN_scatter-_300px .g-pstyle2
font-size:13px;
line-height:15px;
height:15px;
text-align:right;

#g-CONTAIN_scatter-_300px .g-pstyle3
font-weight:500;
font-size:13px;
line-height:15px;
height:15px;
text-align:center;

#g-CONTAIN_scatter-_300px .g-pstyle4
font-weight:500;
height:20px;
text-align:center;

#g-CONTAIN_scatter-_300px .g-pstyle5
font-size:13px;
line-height:15px;
height:15px;
text-align:center;

#g-CONTAIN_scatter-_300px .g-pstyle6
font-size:13px;
line-height:15px;
height:15px;

#g-CONTAIN_scatter-_540px
position:relative;
overflow:hidden;

#g-CONTAIN_scatter-_540px p
font-family:Retina,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;
font-weight:500;
font-size:15px;
line-height:20px;
filter:alpha(opacity=100);
-ms-filter:progid:DXImageTransform.Microsoft.Alpha(Opacity=100);
opacity:1;
letter-spacing:0em;
text-align:left;
color:rgb(51.0000007599592,51.0000007599592,51.0000007599592);
text-transform:none;
padding-bottom:0;
padding-top:0;
mix-blend-mode:normal;
font-style:normal;
height:auto;
position:static;

#g-CONTAIN_scatter-_540px .g-pstyle0
height:20px;

#g-CONTAIN_scatter-_540px .g-pstyle1
font-weight:300;
font-size:13px;
line-height:15px;
height:15px;
text-align:right;

#g-CONTAIN_scatter-_540px .g-pstyle2
font-weight:300;
font-size:13px;
line-height:15px;
height:15px;
text-align:center;

#g-CONTAIN_scatter-_540px .g-pstyle3
font-weight:300;
font-size:12px;
line-height:14px;
height:14px;
text-align:right;
color:rgb(50.0000008195639,50.0000008195639,50.0000008195639);

#g-CONTAIN_scatter-_540px .g-pstyle4
text-align:center;

#g-CONTAIN_scatter-_540px .g-pstyle5
height:20px;
text-align:center;

#g-CONTAIN_scatter-_540px .g-pstyle6
font-size:13px;
line-height:15px;
height:15px;
text-align:center;

#g-CONTAIN_scatter-_540px .g-pstyle7
font-weight:300;
font-size:13px;
line-height:15px;
height:15px;

#g-CONTAIN_scatter-_620px
position:relative;
overflow:hidden;

#g-CONTAIN_scatter-_620px p
font-family:Retina,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;
font-weight:500;
font-size:15px;
line-height:20px;
filter:alpha(opacity=100);
-ms-filter:progid:DXImageTransform.Microsoft.Alpha(Opacity=100);
opacity:1;
letter-spacing:0em;
text-align:left;
color:rgb(51.0000007599592,51.0000007599592,51.0000007599592);
text-transform:none;
padding-bottom:0;
padding-top:0;
mix-blend-mode:normal;
font-style:normal;
height:auto;
position:static;

#g-CONTAIN_scatter-_620px .g-pstyle0
height:20px;

#g-CONTAIN_scatter-_620px .g-pstyle1
font-weight:300;
font-size:13px;
line-height:15px;
height:15px;
text-align:right;

#g-CONTAIN_scatter-_620px .g-pstyle2
font-weight:300;
font-size:13px;
line-height:15px;
height:15px;
text-align:center;

#g-CONTAIN_scatter-_620px .g-pstyle3
font-weight:300;
font-size:12px;
line-height:14px;
height:14px;
text-align:right;
color:rgb(50.0000008195639,50.0000008195639,50.0000008195639);

#g-CONTAIN_scatter-_620px .g-pstyle4
text-align:center;

#g-CONTAIN_scatter-_620px .g-pstyle5
height:20px;
text-align:center;

#g-CONTAIN_scatter-_620px .g-pstyle6
font-size:13px;
line-height:15px;
height:15px;
text-align:center;

#g-CONTAIN_scatter-_620px .g-pstyle7
font-weight:300;
line-height:17px;
height:17px;
text-align:center;

#g-CONTAIN_scatter-_620px .g-pstyle8
font-weight:300;
line-height:17px;
height:17px;

#g-CONTAIN_scatter-_700px
position:relative;
overflow:hidden;

#g-CONTAIN_scatter-_700px p
font-family:Retina,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;
font-weight:500;
font-size:15px;
line-height:20px;
filter:alpha(opacity=100);
-ms-filter:progid:DXImageTransform.Microsoft.Alpha(Opacity=100);
opacity:1;
letter-spacing:0em;
text-align:left;
color:rgb(51.0000007599592,51.0000007599592,51.0000007599592);
text-transform:none;
padding-bottom:0;
padding-top:0;
mix-blend-mode:normal;
font-style:normal;
height:auto;
position:static;

#g-CONTAIN_scatter-_700px .g-pstyle0
height:20px;

#g-CONTAIN_scatter-_700px .g-pstyle1
font-weight:300;
font-size:13px;
line-height:15px;
height:15px;
text-align:right;

#g-CONTAIN_scatter-_700px .g-pstyle2
font-weight:300;
font-size:13px;
line-height:15px;
height:15px;
text-align:center;

#g-CONTAIN_scatter-_700px .g-pstyle3
text-align:center;

#g-CONTAIN_scatter-_700px .g-pstyle4
font-weight:300;
font-size:12px;
line-height:14px;
height:14px;
text-align:right;
color:rgb(50.0000008195639,50.0000008195639,50.0000008195639);

#g-CONTAIN_scatter-_700px .g-pstyle5
height:20px;
text-align:center;

#g-CONTAIN_scatter-_700px .g-pstyle6
font-size:13px;
line-height:15px;
height:15px;
text-align:center;

#g-CONTAIN_scatter-_700px .g-pstyle7
font-weight:300;
font-size:13px;
line-height:15px;
height:15px;

Percent Positive

Here’s where different states fall in their positive testing rates, with a benchmark for a sufficient amount of testing around 10%, according to the World Health Organization.

Total tests performed

since pandemic began

100%

La.

Louisiana is reviewing commercial testing and has only reported positive cases since April 19.

500,000

100,000

90

25,000

80

70

Percentage of tests from April 20-22* that were positive

New Jersey has the highest percentage of positive tests overall— 50%— and based on the past three days’ 50.4% positive results it’s likely to remain high.

60

N.J.

50

Ky.

Conn.

40

30

Mich.

N.Y.

669,982

tests

Mass.

Colo.

Iowa

Md.

Ill.

Va.

Ohio

Ala.

20

While its overall percentage of positive tests is second-highest in the country, New York’s daily positive tests are slowing down.

Pa.

Ga.

N.H.

Ind.

Mo.

Wis.

Minn.

10

Wash.

Fla.

Texas

Calif.

0

0

10

20

30

40

50%

Percentage of total tests that were positive

Total tests performed

since pandemic began

100%

La.

500,000

Louisiana is reviewing commercial testing and has only reported positive cases since April 19.

100,000

25,000

90

80

70

Percentage of tests from April 20-22* that were positive

New Jersey has the highest percentage of positive tests overall— 50%—and based on the past three days’ 50.4% positive results it’s likely to remain high.

60

N.J.

50

Ky.

Conn.

40

30

Mich.

N.Y.

669,982

tests

Mass.

Va.

Ohio

20

While its overall percentage of positive tests is second-highest in the country, New York’s daily positive tests are slowing down.

Ga.

Ind.

10

Fla.

Texas

Calif.

0

0

10

20

30

40

50%

Percentage of total tests that were positive

Total tests performed

since pandemic began

100%

La.

500,000

Louisiana is reviewing commercial testing and has only reported positive cases since April 19.

100,000

25,000

90

80

Percentage of tests from April 20-22* that were positive

70

New Jersey has the highest percentage of positive tests overall— 50%— and based on the past three days’ 50.4% positive results it’s likely to remain high.

60

N.J.

50

Ky.

Conn.

40

30

Mich.

N.Y.

669,982

tests

Mass.

Va.

Ohio

20

While its overall percentage of positive tests is second-highest in the country, New York’s daily positive tests are slowing down.

Ga.

Ind.

Fla.

10

Texas

Calif.

0

0

10

20

30

40

50%

Percentage of total tests that were positive

Total tests performed

since pandemic began

500,000

100,000

25,000

100%

1

Percentage of tests from April 20-22* that were positive

90

80

70

60

50

2

Ky.

Conn.

40

30

3

20

10

Fla.

Texas

Calif.

0

0

10

20

30

40

50%

Percentage of total tests

that were positive

Louisiana is reviewing commercial testing and has only reported positive cases since April 19.

1

New Jersey has the highest percentage of positive tests overall— 50%— and based on the past three days’ 50.4% positive results it’s likely to remain high.

2

New York has done the most tests—669,982. While its overall percentage of positive tests is second-highest in the country, New York’s daily positive tests are slowing down.

2

*Percentages for Delaware, Hawaii, New Hampshire and Virginia are from April 19-21 due to anomalies in reporting for April 22.

Source: The COVID Tracking Project

At least 500,000 tests a day are needed to identify most cases of Covid-19, the illness caused by the new coronavirus, in the U.S. and trace their contacts, said Ashish Jha, director of the Harvard Global Health Institute.

Capacity would need to increase by 30 times to test workers in essential services, including those without symptoms, according to Resolve to Save Lives.

Health officials, hospitals and employers also are eager for antibody tests, to determine how many people have been infected and might have some immunity. Most antibody tests on the market haven’t been reviewed by the Food and Drug Administration, and many experts doubt their accuracy. Government agencies including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the FDA are assessing the quality of some tests.

Need for Workers

Even once transmission of the virus has slowed, U.S. public-health departments have nowhere near enough workers to track down all exposed people, experts say. Reports from Johns Hopkins, the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials and others say between 100,000 and 300,000 workers are needed, depending on how many contacts each infected person has.

The nation’s under-resourced local public-health departments employ between 130,000 and 160,000 people, according to the National Association of County and City Health Officials, or Naccho, and only a fraction do contact-tracing work. These departments have lost more than 50,000 workers since the 2008 recession, or nearly 25% of their workforce.

“They’ve been at this for a while. They’re tired and they’re low-resourced to begin with,” said Lori Tremmel Freeman, Naccho’s chief executive officer.

As testing becomes one of the most hotly debated topics during the coronavirus crisis, WSJ’s Gerald F. Seib explores what role pharmacists will play in diagnosing patients. Photo: Adam Glanzman/Bloomberg

Public-health officials are asking Congress for $3.6 billion in federal funding to hire the workers. The CDC is providing experts and $631 million to public-health departments for contact tracing and other response activities.

Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg is spending $10.5 million through his philanthropy to build a contact-tracing army of thousands of people in the city and in neighboring counties and states.

Digital technologies also can help track people, but they aren’t a substitute for human contact tracers, public-health experts say.

In Massachusetts, Gov. Charlie Baker engaged Partners in Health, a Boston nonprofit that has worked on health care in Haiti, Rwanda and other countries, to hire and oversee 1,000 workers. “It gives us a way to really drive effective strategies that have worked many times in other places to shut down contagion and outbreaks like this,” Mr. Baker said in an interview.

Tests for Covid-19 being performed in Philadelphia this week.



Photo:

Matt Rourke/Associated Press

Staffers interview people who have tested positive to find out who they were in contact with, then hand that information to tracers who call those contacts, said Joia Mukherjee, chief medical officer of Partners in Health. The contact tracers tell the people who were exposed, “You’ve been identified as a contact, how are you, do you have care, do you have the material resources to quarantine safely?” Dr. Mukherjee said. The goal is “to turn off the tap of community transmission.”

Amanda Kearns, a former fundraiser, was recently hired by Partners in Health to supervise contact tracers in the state. “If we can get people who are sick or have been exposed but don’t know it to stay home, that makes a huge difference,” said Ms. Kearns, who works from a computer and phone in her bedroom in Somerville, Mass.

Places to Isolate

People who have been exposed are “the leading edge of the pandemic” because they may be the next to get sick, and services are needed to help them self-isolate voluntarily, said Tom Frieden, president and CEO of Resolve To Save Lives.

Exposed or infected people may need temporary housing so they don’t risk infecting others, Dr. Frieden said. Services should include food, medical services and even entertainment. “The best programs around the world use a carrot and stick approach,” Dr. Frieden said, citing contact tracing and isolation programs in Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea.

SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS

What should states be doing to prepare to reopen their economies? Join the conversation below.

Write to Betsy McKay at betsy.mckay@wsj.com and Brianna Abbott at brianna.abbott@wsj.com

Copyright ©2019 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

Let’s block ads! (Why?)


Source link

One Comment

  1. zortilonrel

    November 14, 2020 at 5:17 am

    you’re really a good webmaster. The site loading speed is amazing. It seems that you’re doing any unique trick. Furthermore, The contents are masterpiece. you’ve done a magnificent job on this topic!

    Reply

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Check Also

British Nutrition Foundation to launch Healthy Eating Week – New Food

The BNF is launching a new event to encourage people from all ages to improve their health…