Home Health News New report says coronavirus pandemic could last for two years – and may not subside until 70% of the population has immunity – CBS News

New report says coronavirus pandemic could last for two years – and may not subside until 70% of the population has immunity – CBS News

5 min read
23
14

As coronavirus restrictions around the world are being lifted, a new report warns the pandemic that has already killed more than 230,000 people likely won’t be contained for two years. The modeling study from the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) at the University of Minnesota also says that about 70% of people need to be immune in order to bring the virus to a halt. 

For the study, experts looked at eight major influenza pandemics dating back to the 1700s, as well as data about the new coronavirus, to help forecast how COVID-19 may spread over the coming months and years. Out of the eight past flu pandemics, scientists said seven had a second substantial peak about six months after the first one. Additionally, some had “smaller waves of cases over the course of 2 years” after the initial outbreak.  

A key factor in their prediction for the current pandemic revolves around herd immunity, which refers to the community-wide resistance to the spread of a contagious disease that results when a high percentage of people are immune to it, either through vaccination or prior exposure. 

“The length of the pandemic will likely be 18 to 24 months, as herd immunity gradually develops in the human population,” the report says. “Given the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2” — the virus that causes COVID-19 — “60% to 70% of the population may need to be immune to reach a critical threshold of herd immunity to halt the pandemic.”

It will take time to reach that point, since data from blood tests show only a small fraction of the overall population has been infected so far, and a possible vaccine is still months if not a year or more away. It is not yet clear whether people who’ve recovered from the infection will be immune or how long such protection would last.

The report lays out several possible scenarios, including one in which a larger wave of illnesses may happen in the fall or winter of 2020 and then subsequent smaller waves in 2021. The researchers say this model — similar to the pattern seen in the devastating 1918 Spanish flu pandemic — would “require the reinstitution of mitigation measures in the fall in an attempt to drive down spread of infection and prevent healthcare systems from being overwhelmed.” 

Two other scenarios in the report involve either recurring peaks and valleys of outbreaks, or smaller waves of illness over the next two years.

In any case, the researchers said people must be prepared for “at least another 18 to 24 months of significant COVID-19 activity, with hot spots popping up periodically” in different geographic areas.

As the virus continues to circulate among the human population and outbreaks finally start to wane, they say it will likely “synchronize to a seasonal pattern with diminished severity over time.” 

Let’s block ads! (Why?)


Source link

23 Comments

  1. g as

    June 21, 2020 at 11:54 am

    Thanks in favor of sharing such a fastidious idea, paragraph is pleasant, thats why
    i have read it fully

    Reply

  2. website hosting

    July 22, 2020 at 2:16 am

    Hi my family member! I want to say that this post is awesome, great written and include approximately all significant infos.

    I’d like to see more posts like this .

    Reply

  3. web hosting services

    July 25, 2020 at 3:42 am

    Hey there! I’ve been reading your web site for some
    time now and finally got the bravery to go ahead and give you a shout
    out from Porter Tx! Just wanted to mention keep up the good work!

    Reply

  4. skyscanner.com

    July 28, 2020 at 12:10 am

    Hey there outstanding website! Does running a blog such as this take a great deal of work?

    I have absolutely no understanding of computer programming but I
    had been hoping to start my own blog in the near future.
    Anyway, should you have any ideas or tips for new blog owners please
    share. I know this is off subject nevertheless I simply needed
    to ask. Thanks!

    Reply

  5. cheap flights tickets

    July 31, 2020 at 1:16 am

    I’d like to find out more? I’d care to find out more details.

    Reply

  6. web hosting sites

    August 14, 2020 at 5:50 am

    Can you tell us more about this? I’d like to find out some additional information.

    Reply

  7. IrvinSBecvar

    August 20, 2020 at 7:02 am

    Fabulous, what a website it is! This webpage presents valuable information to us, keep it up.

    Review my web blog; IrvinSBecvar

    Reply

  8. HankWArrocha

    August 21, 2020 at 7:33 am

    Wow! In the end I bought a webpage from which I can genuinely get useful data concerning my study and data.

    Feel free to visit my webpage … HankWArrocha

    Reply

  9. cheap flights

    August 24, 2020 at 8:57 pm

    Hi there to all, the contents existing at this site
    are in fact remarkable for people knowledge, well, keep up
    the nice work fellows. yynxznuh cheap flights

    Reply

  10. cheap flights

    August 28, 2020 at 4:29 am

    I have read so many articles about the blogger lovers but this
    article is really a good post, keep it up.

    Reply

  11. hosting services

    September 5, 2020 at 12:10 pm

    Hello, i think that i saw you visited my weblog thus i came to “return the favor”.I am attempting to find things to enhance my website!I
    suppose its ok to use some of your ideas!!

    Reply

  12. bullet journal dot grid notebook

    September 13, 2020 at 1:43 am

    When some one searches for his necessary thing, therefore he/she wants being available that in more
    detail, so that thing is maintained over here.

    my webpage bullet journal dot grid notebook

    Reply

  13. zipper wallet insert

    September 23, 2020 at 7:07 am

    My programmer is wanting to convince me to move to .net from PHP.
    I have got always disliked the concept due to the expenses.
    But he’s tryiong none the less. I’ve been using WordPress on numerous websites
    for roughly per year and am nervous about switching to
    another one platform. I have heard excellent reasons for having
    blogengine.net. What is the way I can transfer my wordpress posts with
    it? Any help will be greatly appreciated!

    Take a look at my website :: zipper wallet insert

    Reply

  14. travelers notebook 2020

    October 1, 2020 at 4:28 pm

    I do believe this really is among the most important info for me personally.
    And i’m glad reading your article. But wanna remark on few general things, The internet site style is perfect, the
    articles is really nice : D. Good job, cheers

    Also visit my web site travelers notebook 2020

    Reply

  15. journal notebooks in bulk

    October 2, 2020 at 6:43 am

    You made some good points there. I checked on the internet for more information regarding
    the issue and located most people will go along with
    your views on this site.

    Take a look at my blog post :: journal notebooks in bulk

    Reply

  16. SherieGBells

    October 11, 2020 at 8:27 pm

    I always emailed this weblog post page for all my contacts, because if love
    to read it afterward my links will too.

    Look at my webpage … SherieGBells

    Reply

  17. notebook blank and lined pages

    October 14, 2020 at 6:37 am

    Firstly I would want to say wonderful blog! I had a simple question by which I’d want to ask if you do not mind.
    I used to be curious to know how you center yourself and clear your thinking prior to writing.
    I’ve had trouble clearing my thoughts in acquiring my
    ideas out there. I truly do get pleasure from writing nevertheless it just may seem like the very first ten to fifteen minutes tend to be
    lost just considering how to begin. Any recommendations or tips?
    Thanks!

    my web-site – notebook blank and lined pages

    Reply

  18. chic sparrow maverick

    December 18, 2020 at 8:29 am

    Hi there, I discovered your website by means of Google whilst in search of a
    related matter, your website came up, it looks great.
    I actually have bookmarked it in my google bookmarks.

    Review my website … chic sparrow maverick

    Reply

  19. Chic Sparrow Zipper Wallet

    January 14, 2021 at 10:07 am

    Hi there! I was able to have sworn I’ve gone to this site before but after
    reading through some of the post I realized it’s a novice to me.
    Nonetheless, I’m definitely delighted I found it and I’ll be book-marking and checking
    back frequently!

    Here is my web page Chic Sparrow Zipper Wallet

    Reply

  20. reminder stickers

    January 31, 2021 at 11:27 am

    hey there and thank you for your information – I have definitely found
    something new from right here. I have done
    however expertise several technical points using this
    website, since I experienced to reload the website many times previous to I really could have it to load correctly.
    I had been wondering should your internet hosting is OK?
    Not too I’m complaining, but sluggish loading instances times will sometimes affect your placement in google and could damage your top quality score if ads and marketing with Adwords.
    Well I am just adding this RSS to my e-mail and could consider a good deal a greater portion of
    your respective fascinating content. Guarantee that you update this
    again soon.

    Look into my webpage :: reminder stickers

    Reply

  21. bullet journal

    February 13, 2021 at 2:39 pm

    Good day! I could have sworn I’ve gone to this blog before but after
    reading through some of the post I realized it’s new to me.

    Anyways, I’m definitely delighted I came across it and I’ll be book-marking and checking back often!

    Also visit my web site; bullet journal

    Reply

  22. Christie Shallenberger

    June 5, 2021 at 1:13 am

    This was great! I would like you to clean up all this spam though

    Reply

  23. Georgie Escobeo

    June 9, 2021 at 6:41 am

    This was great! I would like you to clean up all this spam though

    Reply

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Check Also

British Nutrition Foundation to launch Healthy Eating Week – New Food

The BNF is launching a new event to encourage people from all ages to improve their health…