Home Health News Model projects 200,000 people in the US could die from Covid-19 by October. Why that estimate might be low – CNN

Model projects 200,000 people in the US could die from Covid-19 by October. Why that estimate might be low – CNN

11 min read
14
8

Arizona and Texas on Tuesday reported a record high in their daily numbers of new COVID-19 cases.
Florida on Monday had the highest number the state has yet seen of new and confirmed cases in a single day, after three record-breaking days late last week.
Eight states, including Florida, Oklahoma and Louisiana, have seen coronavirus numbers surge more than 50% in the past seven days compared to a week earlier, according to a CNN analysis of data from Johns Hopkins University.
The other five states are South Carolina, Alabama, Wyoming and Montana.
How states are trending
  • 18 states are seeing upward trends in newly reported cases from one week to the next: California, Oregon, Nevada, Arizona, Montana, Wyoming, Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Alaska and Hawaii.
  • 10 states are seeing steady numbers of newly reported cases: Washington, Utah, South Dakota, Kansas, Iowa, Tennessee, Ohio, West Virginia, Maine and Rhode Island.
  • 22 states are seeing a downward trend: Idaho, Colorado, New Mexico, Nebraska, North Dakota, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire and Delaware.
  • One state, Michigan, has seen a decrease of at least 50%.

Projections of deaths raised

A mix of early reopenings and disregard for personal safety measures have prompted researchers to increase their projections of Covid-19 deaths this summer.
One model cited by the White House now predicts 200,000 US deaths from coronavirus by October 1 — an increase of 30,000 deaths since last week’s projection by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.
That would mean an average daily death toll of more than 840 Americans since February 6, the date of the first known US death linked to Covid-19.
“Increased mobility and premature relaxation of social distancing led to more infections, and we see it in Florida, Arizona, and other states,” said Ali Mokdad, one of the creators of the model.
Study: The best way to reduce coronavirus transmission is by wearing a face mask
“This means more projected deaths.”
But IHME projections have been low in the past, and others say the death toll could be higher.
“Sadly, I think this 200,000 number may be a under prediction based on what we’re starting to see in several states across the country,” CNN Chief Medical Correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta said.
More than 2 million Americans have been infected by the virus, and more than 116,125 have died, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

Why doctors are worried

“What we’re seeing from footage — especially from the states where we see these cases rising — is that states are not opening gently. They’re opening with lots of crowds,” said Dr. Rochelle Walensky, chief of the infectious diseases division at Massachusetts General Hospital.
Another reveler who visited the Lake of the Ozarks tests positive for coronavirus Another reveler who visited the Lake of the Ozarks tests positive for coronavirus
“They’re opening with a lack of face masks … And when that happens, you don’t need too many infections for cases to soar.”
That’s because without social distancing this coronavirus can be twice as contagious as the flu. It’s easy to infect others even without symptoms. And it has a lengthy incubation time, meaning those who eventually get sick can be contagious for days without knowing it.

Yes, testing is up. But so are hospitalizations

Fauci: States should rethink reopenings if hospitalizations increaseFauci: States should rethink reopenings if hospitalizations increase
Some governors have attributed their rise in Covid-19 cases to increased testing.
It’s true that testing has improved, said Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
But “when you start seeing more hospitalizations, that’s a surefire sign that you’re in a situation where you’re going in the wrong direction,” Fauci said.
On Monday, Texas reported a new record high of 2,326 hospitalizations due to coronavirus. And in the past week, at least 12 states saw higher rates of Covid-19 hospitalizations.

Some places reconsider plans to reopen

Texas’ capital city, Austin, has extended stay-at-home orders through August 15, Mayor Steve Adler announced Monday, citing a spike in new coronavirus cases.
Why a 2nd shutdown might be worse than the 1st -- and how to prevent itWhy a 2nd shutdown might be worse than the 1st -- and how to prevent it
North Carolina’s next steps are not yet clear. Gov. Roy Cooper told reporters Monday that he would announce early next week whether the state will still under phase three of the state’s reopening later this month.
The rates of new cases in New Jersey are trending downward, but Gov. Phil Murphy said he wants the state to proceed cautiously.
“We’re not just going to throw up our doors all at once as other states have done,” Murphy said. “We’ve already paid a huge, huge almost unfathomable price.”
Arkansas, on the other hand, still plans to move into phase two of its reopening despite recording its largest daily spike in new cases on Friday — 731 new cases.
“I hope we don’t repeat” that, Gov. Asa Hutchinson said.
But “we can’t have life on hold for six months to a year until there’s a vaccination … We have to be able to carry on life and business.”

Scientists are learning more about the virus

Even though this coronavirus has killed more than 430,000 people worldwide, it’s still relatively new.
The National Institutes of Health launched a database to collect medical information on US coronavirus patients to learn more about the virus.
FDA revokes authorization of a drug Trump toutedFDA revokes authorization of a drug Trump touted
“This effort aims to transform clinical information into knowledge urgently needed to study COVID-19, including health risk factors that indicate better or worse outcomes of the disease and identify potentially effective treatments,” the NIH said.
The Red Cross announced it will start testing all blood, plasma and platelet donations for coronavirus antibodies to help educate donors about whether they’ve already been exposed to the virus.
The test, which has been authorized by the US Food and Drug Administration, shows whether a person’s immune system has produced antibodies to fight the virus.
And a condition called Multi-Inflammatory Syndrome in Children (MIS-C) could be a delayed response to a coronavirus infection, according to a team at the New York health system Northwell Health.
“We were pretty shocked as it was playing out,” Dr. Charles Schleien said. “The whole syndrome came out of the blue. We had been comfortable for months (in the belief) that kids weren’t affected all these months by coronavirus.”

Let’s block ads! (Why?)


Source link

14 Comments

  1. ปั้มไลค์

    June 17, 2020 at 4:25 am

    Like!! Thank you for publishing this awesome article.

    Reply

  2. A big thank you for your article.

    Reply

  3. I really like and appreciate your blog post.

    Reply

  4. เบอร์สวย

    June 17, 2020 at 4:29 am

    Thanks for fantastic info I was looking for this info for my mission.

    Reply

  5. SMS

    June 17, 2020 at 4:31 am

    Very good article! We are linking to this particularly great content on our site. Keep up the great writing.

    Reply

  6. https://tinyurl.com/rsacwgxy g

    June 22, 2020 at 5:53 am

    Attractive component to content. I just stumbled upon your site and in accession capital to claim that I get actually loved account your
    weblog posts. Any way I’ll be subscribing in your feeds or even I
    success you get admission to consistently fast.

    Reply

  7. cbd oil that works 2020

    June 27, 2020 at 3:59 pm

    Thanks for finally writing about > Model projects 200,000 people in the
    US could die from Covid-19 by October. Why
    that estimate might be low – CNN – SleepingRex < Loved it!

    Reply

  8. Tresa Rettke

    July 24, 2020 at 5:11 pm

    Hello , all website webmaster need SEO tool to check and find new keyword and analyes websites by using the best seo tool AHREFS now for just 10$ monthly you can use use this golden tool while it costs more than 150$ monthly , you can get trial as well >> https://cutt.ly/ahrefs

    Reply

  9. best web hosting company

    July 27, 2020 at 12:38 am

    It’s amazing in support of me to have a web site, which is valuable in favor of my know-how.
    thanks admin

    Reply

  10. Carrol Nuckolls

    July 28, 2020 at 5:50 pm

    Hello .This offer for canadian only ! , so if u are from canada you can get free grocery on your flat , we are giving free grocey to our new customer for the first time only , apply now for free >>http://lnkclik.com/95rX

    Reply

  11. Royce Zupp

    July 29, 2020 at 6:03 am

    Hello .Do you eat at McDonalds ? if you from canada and eat at McDonalds , you can get free McDonalds Gift Card , this just for limited time , try now and get free meals >> http://lnkclik.com/95s7

    Reply

  12. cheap flights with jet2

    July 29, 2020 at 6:26 am

    Can I simply say what a relief to uncover somebody that genuinely knows what they are discussing
    over the internet. You actually realize how to bring an issue to light and make it important.
    More and more people have to check this out and understand this side of your story.

    I was surprised you’re not more popular because you most certainly have the gift.

    Reply

  13. website hosting services

    August 7, 2020 at 1:32 pm

    Hello it’s me, I am also visiting this site on a regular basis, this web site is actually
    nice and the visitors are truly sharing fastidious
    thoughts.

    Reply

  14. cheap flights

    August 25, 2020 at 6:23 am

    Hey there, I think your site might be having browser compatibility issues.
    When I look at your blog site in Ie, it looks fine but when opening in Internet Explorer, it has some
    overlapping. I just wanted to give you a quick heads up!
    Other then that, terrific blog! cheap flights 3gqLYTc

    Reply

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Check Also

Houston Dr Joseph Varon hugs and comforts patient in COVID-19 ICU in viral photo – KABC-TV

HOUSTON, Texas — A photo of a Houston doctor has gone viral after it showed him hugg…